Tuesday’s California earthquake may not be much bigger than that, an expert says
SAN JOSE, CA. – An earthquake that shook parts of the San Francisco Bay Area on Tuesday could cause aftershocks that could last for days or more.
The 5.1 magnitude earthquake It struck just before noon near Alum Rock, southeast of San Jose. It was widely felt throughout the Bay Area. People as far away as San Diego and Lake Tahoe reported shaking.
A few hours after the panic, FOX Weather San Jose State University earthquake geologist Kimberly Blisniuk, Ph.D., spoke to the possibility of additional tremors.
“It’s based on a scale of magnitude, so it’s 67% of a 3 or higher,” Blisniuk said. “When we get to magnitude 5, which we just felt, there’s a 2% chance.”
As of Wednesday morning US Geological Survey forecast For 3 or more concussions, it was 21% within a day and 45% within a week. The probability of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or greater was less than 1%.
At least it was three more tremors Tuesday’s earthquake was reported to have a magnitude of 2.7 to 3.5 in the area.
Blisniuk said Tuesday’s tremors occurred on the Hayward-Calaveras fault, part of the larger San Andreas fault system.
“These faults basically provide movement between two large tectonic plates,” Blisniuk said. “The two plates are the North American plate and the Pacific plate.”
according to USGSThe Calavera fault last produced a major earthquake in October 2007. It was a magnitude 5.4 earthquake near Alum Rock.
California experiences two or three earthquakes each year that can cause significant damage and can be magnitude 5.5 or greater. National Earthquake Information Center.
Editor’s note: The original version of this story indicated a higher chance of major tremors. This has been updated to clarify that the threat only has a 2% chance.
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